What is the meaning behind the release of the four signals of the central economic work conference on the regulation of the property market？
Beijing, December 11th (Reporter Jing Wong) The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8th to 10th. For the development of real estate, this meeting, while continuing to emphasize the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, newly put forward the idea of "promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry because of the city’s policy".
What impact will this have on the real estate market next year? The reporter interviewed a number of industry experts in this regard.
one
Stick to the bottom line! Adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating" for many years.
After the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference strategically repositioned the real estate market in China with "houses are for living, not for speculation", this year’s Central Economic Work Conference once again emphasized "houses are not for speculation".
The Central Economic Work Conference requested that we should stick to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen the expected guidance and explore new development models.
This meeting once again emphasized this positioning, which has different significance in the current environment. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Yangguang.com on December 11 that if the local government relaxes the purchase policy without a bottom line or even drives real estate through the real estate speculation market, it still faces the possibility of accountability. This also requires that the boundaries between reasonable housing demand and investment speculative real estate demand should be strictly distinguished in order to truly crack down on illegal and protect legal ones.
He also believes that, in fact, under the goal of "common prosperity", the real estate tax will be actively piloted, so the practice of all kinds of real estate speculation will still be severely cracked down.
2
The new formulation "exploring a new development model" is one of the biggest highlights.
Another highlight of the central economic work conference on the real estate market is the concept of "exploring new development models".
How to understand? In this regard, Yan Yuejin believes that there are multiple meanings. First of all, the development model of mergers and acquisitions will be further promoted. During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, the housing market and the rental market will be developed in parallel, and the commercial housing market and the affordable housing market will also work together. Therefore, for the development of affordable rental housing, it is expected that more policy support will be introduced.
Wang Xiaoyu, the head of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, said that exploring new development models will also promote the transformation of real estate development enterprises. Wang Xiaoyu mentioned that China’s real estate market has ended its rapid development and entered a period of steady development. The growth rate of the incremental market has slowed down, and the development model of rapid turnover and high leverage of housing enterprises has become a thing of the past.
Yan Yuejin also believes that the incremental market will gradually change into a mode of incremental stock development. In particular, the development of the stock market will accelerate, including the four major markets of urban renewal, old residential areas, property management and leasing market, which will better develop the stock market.
It is worth mentioning that, for local governments, the "land finance" model driven by rising house prices and land prices in the past also needs to be changed urgently. Yan Yuejin further explained that the promotion of real estate tax will still be carried out, which will further guide the concept of housing consumption to take root and reverse the wrong thinking of housing investment and real estate speculation, including housing enterprises and property buyers should actively understand this new development model.
three
Focus: the proportion of affordable rental housing supply is expected to increase.
For affordable rental housing, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that the development of long-term rental housing market should be accelerated, the construction of affordable housing should be promoted, and the commercial housing market should be supported to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. The reporter is concerned that "affordable housing" is placed in front of "commercial housing".
According to the data of Shell Platform, the average age of buying a house in 2021 is 36-38 years old, which is about 2-3 years later than that in 2018. Many tenants have rented for more than 10 years, and the demand for family leasing is gradually emerging in the future.
Wang Xiaoming told reporters that due to the high pressure of buying houses, residents are encouraged to rent for sale. In the past, it was proposed that "rental and sale have the same rights". However, the rental market in China is still in the initial stage of development. In 2018, long-term rental apartments emerged, followed by the explosion of long-term rental apartments. As a multi-channel housing supply source, long-term rental apartments will strengthen supervision and construction in the future.
She also predicted that the proportion of affordable rental housing supply is expected to increase. Affordable housing is one of the supply sources of the housing market, and its primary purpose is to solve the housing problem of low-income groups, which is one of the key points of policy concern.
The reporter noted that recently, the Standing Committee of the 15th Beijing Municipal People’s Congress deliberated the Beijing Housing Lease Regulations (Draft), and in the future, it is expected to get further policy support. Earlier, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also said that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the housing security system will be further improved and the supply of affordable housing will be increased with the focus on the development of affordable rental housing.
four
"Good Cycle" and "Healthy Development" were interchanged, and the expression "Policy for the City" was added.
The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry because of the city’s policy.
Compared with the past, there is one detail worthy of attention. Yan Yuejin said that the expression of the real estate policy was further refined, and the position of "virtuous circle" and "healthy development" was interchanged, and "virtuous circle" was placed first. In this regard, Yan Yuejin explained that a virtuous circle is the basis of healthy development, and the real estate industry will develop better and healthily after a virtuous circle. He said that "this statement has a very important impact on subsequent policy changes."
However, the current real estate market is caught in a contradiction and embarrassment that is difficult to virtuous circle. Yan Yuejin analyzed that this shows that "the market — Enterprise — The circulation of real estate elements between households is not smooth, which leads to the low efficiency of real estate operation and the obvious increase of real estate risks. Only when a virtuous circle is realized between the three, real estate can truly usher in a healthy development space.
In order to achieve this goal, all localities should implement the idea of policy-making because of the city. "In other words, different market contradictions will lead to different policies." Yan Yuejin admits that too rigid understanding and implementation of relevant policies is not due to the concept of urban policy, and will eventually damage the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate market.
He cited, for example, the pressure on housing inventory in some cities is relatively high, and it is necessary to actively create a better environment and policies for destocking. For some cities where the pressure of rising house prices is too high and house prices are easy to speculate, the policy of stabilizing house prices should be better implemented based on the development of a virtuous circle. "This also shows that the subsequent judgment on the fundamentals of the real estate market in various places is crucial, and only in this way can we better implement the differentiated policy." Yan Yuejin said that this means that the regulation of cities with high pressure on housing prices will be strict.