In October, China’s national economy continued to recover steadily. The growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year, the production index of service industry rebounded obviously, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 1 percentage point higher than that of last month, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China from January to October was 1 percentage point higher than that from January to September. The trend of consumption recovery has been continuously enhanced, which has improved some unbalanced situations in the previous economic operation. Looking ahead, economic growth may further accelerate in the fourth quarter.
On November 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the performance of the national economy in October. In October, production rose steadily, demand stabilized and picked up, employment continued to improve, prices were generally stable, the market expected to improve, and the national economy continued to recover steadily.
"On the whole, the national economy continued to resume growth in October, and the results of implementing the tasks of’ six stabilities’ and’ six guarantees’ were further revealed." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that it is necessary to further coordinate the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic and economic and social development in accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, promote sustained and stable economic recovery, and lay a good foundation for the start of the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
Economic activity is rising.
The industry and service industry grew steadily and rapidly. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, which was the same as that in September and 2.2 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year. Among the 41 major industries above designated size, 34 industries achieved growth, accounting for more than 80% of all industries. The growth of the service industry has also accelerated significantly. In October, the service industry production index increased by 7.4% year-on-year, which was 2 percentage points faster than that of the previous month, and obviously rebounded, with the growth rate being 0.8 percentage points faster than that of the same period of last year. Among the eight major industries that constitute the service industry production index, seven have achieved growth, and the index growth rate of five industries has accelerated compared with last month.
Factors of production tend to be active. In October, the decline in passenger traffic in the whole society was significantly narrowed, and the number of tourists nationwide during the Mid-Autumn Festival of the National Day has recovered to more than 70% in the same period of last year. With the acceleration of freight transportation, the national expressway operation has been continuously improved, and the growth of enterprise electricity consumption is also accelerating. In terms of capital, at the end of October, the broad money M2 increased by 10.5% year-on-year, of which the narrow money M1 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, and rebounded for four consecutive months, reflecting the rising economic activity.
Consumption and investment have stabilized and picked up. Judging from the consumption situation, the total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 percentage point faster than last month. Judging from the investment situation, from January to October, the national fixed assets investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than that from January to September.
The new kinetic energy of development continues to increase. In the first 10 months, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 5.9% year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the growth rate of industries above designated size. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and continued to maintain rapid growth. The new format is growing well. In the first 10 months, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to accelerate. Driven by online retailing, the express delivery industry grew by nearly 30% in the first 10 months, and mobile travel, platform economy and other formats also grew rapidly. Driven by market demand, some new products have increased rapidly. In the first 10 months, the output of industrial robots increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and smart watches and 3D printing equipment all maintained rapid growth.
"The changes in these data reflect the strong resilience of China’s economy." Fu Linghui said that some imbalances in the early economic operation have been improved. From the early stage, the characteristics driven by investment are obvious, and consumption further recovered in October, which has a good driving effect on sustained economic growth.
Consumption recovery is in good shape.
With the domestic epidemic prevention and control and the overall promotion of economic and social development, positive results have been achieved, and the consumption recovery situation has continued to increase. In October, 17 of the 18 categories of retail sales of goods above designated size achieved growth, of which 9 categories maintained double-digit growth.
While the retail sales of goods continue to improve, the consumption of services also continues to improve. In October, the retail sales of commodities reached 3,420.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, with a positive growth for four consecutive months. Catering revenue was 437.2 billion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned positive for the first time in the year. Judging from the consumption situation of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists, tourism income and box office have all recovered obviously.
Online consumption maintained rapid growth. In the first 10 months, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 16.0%, which continued to maintain rapid growth, 0.7 percentage points faster than that from January to September. There has also been a marked improvement in offline consumption. In the first 10 months, the retail sales of supermarkets above designated size increased by 3%, while the decline in retail sales of department stores and specialty store was significantly narrowed.
In terms of basic living consumption, both food, clothing and use have maintained double-digit growth, while upgrading consumption and commodity consumption have obviously picked up. In October, cosmetics, gold, silver, jewelry and automobiles increased by 18.3%, 16.7% and 12.0% respectively.
Fu Linghui believes that the recovery of consumption mainly benefits from three reasons. First, the consumption environment has improved. The prevention and control of domestic epidemic situation has achieved remarkable results, and people’s confidence in going out for consumption has increased. The second is the improvement of consumption power. With the economic recovery and employment increase, residents’ income increases, which is conducive to improving residents’ consumption power. The third is the consumption policy. Since the beginning of this year, China has continuously introduced policies to promote automobile consumption and service consumption, which has enhanced the driving effect on related industries and consumption.
Talking about how to expand domestic demand, Fu Linghui believes that China has great potential and space to expand domestic demand. The urbanization of China has not been completed, and there is great potential and space for the development of informationization, industrialization and agricultural modernization. At the same time, China’s economy has entered a stage of high-quality development, but there is still an insufficient imbalance in domestic development. A lot of investment is needed to narrow the regional gap and fill the shortcomings in the social field of people’s livelihood. From the consumption point of view, China has a population of 1.4 billion, and the middle-income group exceeds 400 million. Moreover, with the continuous expansion of economic scale, the trend of total consumption expansion continues, and the trend of consumption upgrading continues, especially in the fields of old-age care, child-rearing and health, there is still huge room for development.
Growth will accelerate in the fourth quarter
Fu Linghui believes that from the next stage, China’s sustained economic recovery has many favorable conditions.
From the perspective of demand, investment growth has rebounded steadily. In October, both infrastructure investment, real estate investment and manufacturing investment rebounded. Judging from the leading investment indicators, the year-on-year growth rate of total planned investment in newly started projects continues to accelerate, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9% in October. From the perspective of capital guarantee, the fixed assets investment funds increased by 6% from January to October, which indicates that the investment recovery trend is expected to continue.
From the perspective of consumption, with the recovery of production and living order, the consumption prospect is increasing. "The improvement of employment is conducive to the growth of residents’ income and the continuous improvement of consumption power." Fu Linghui said.
From the production point of view, industrial production has been stable at a relatively fast level of 6.9% for two consecutive months, which is 2.2 percentage points faster than the same period of last year, indicating that the driving effect of demand on production is increasing.
From the service industry, driven by domestic demand, both the producer service industry and the life service industry have improved significantly. Seven of the eight major industries in the service industry production index have achieved growth, which means that production recovery can continue.
From the perspective of enterprise expectations, both the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index have been stable at more than 50% for eight consecutive months, and the non-manufacturing business activity index has reached a new high in the year.
"From these circumstances, stable economic recovery can be continued and maintained. In addition, a series of policies to help enterprises bail out and financial support for the real economy introduced this year will continue to work. The annual tax reduction and fee reduction is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, and financial support for the real economy may reach more than 1.5 trillion yuan. " Fu Linghui believes that the growth in the fourth quarter may be further accelerated. (Reporter Xiong Li)