Conflict and turmoil are still the key words in the Middle East in 2016, and ethnic and religious contradictions are constantly intertwined with the game between big countries inside and outside the region. After the long-term turmoil in the Middle East, development and stability have become the common aspiration of countries and people in the Middle East, especially the desire of Arab countries to avoid chaos and seek governance is even stronger. People’s determination, avoiding chaos, seeking governance and development may be the hope of turbulent Middle East.
The situation in the Middle East in 2016 continued the basic characteristics of the interweaving of transformation and turmoil since the Middle East changed. On the one hand, the turmoil in the Middle East continues to deepen, spread and spill over, which is highlighted by the crisis of breaking diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the deepening of the game between the great powers of the United States and Russia, the attempted coup in Turkey, the many large-scale terrorist attacks launched by the Islamic State in Europe and the Middle East, the difficult anti-terrorism struggle against the Islamic State, the stalemate in the political settlement of the Syrian issue, the rising Kurdish issue, the continued low oil prices, and the difficult transition of countries in the Middle East. On the other hand, the Middle East, which has experienced long-term turmoil, has also seen a chance to seek governance in chaos. From a regional perspective, despite the deepening of the game between big countries inside and outside the region, the consensus on politically solving regional hot issues such as the Syrian crisis, jointly coping with the terrorism and refugee crisis, and strengthening international cooperation against the "Islamic State" has been enhanced; From the national level, the transition process of the Middle East countries is still very difficult, but it is becoming the common aspiration of the countries and people in the region to be determined, avoid chaos and seek governance and development.
The game between the great powers of the United States and Russia has deepened.
But it did not move towards full-scale confrontation.
On the global strategic level, the fundamental reason for the continued deepening of the Middle East turmoil in 2016 lies in the adjustment of the Middle East strategy of the United States and Russia and the complex game between them. However, the relationship between them is in a state of limited confrontation, competition and cooperation, and it has not moved towards a large-scale comprehensive confrontation.
Overall contraction and controllable leadership constitute the basic characteristics of American Middle East strategy, which is the fundamental reason why the United States has relaxed its Syrian policy, eased its relations with Iran and limited its investment in cracking down on "Islamic State". While the United States is relatively retreating, Russia has stepped up its involvement in Middle East affairs by attacking the "Islamic State" militarily to help the Bashar regime in Syria, increasing its strategic investment in regional powers such as Iran and Egypt, and taking the Middle East as the main direction to break through the strategic dilemma after the Ukrainian crisis. The strategic situation of the United States retreating from Russia and the contradictions between the two sides around the Syrian crisis, the fight against the "Islamic State" and the struggle for regional power all complicate the regional hot issues and the differentiation and combination of regional forces, making the Middle East issue an important part of Medvedev’s so-called "new cold war".
But at the same time, we should also see that Russia’s strategic investment in the Middle East is still a limited investment based on local interests, and Russia does not yet have the strength and willingness to compete with the United States and the West for the Middle East in an all-round way. Therefore, the game between the United States and Russia in the Middle East is limited and controllable. There is still room for cooperation and interest exchange between the two sides on the Syrian issue and the fight against the "Islamic State", and the relationship between the two sides has not moved towards a comprehensive large-scale confrontation. The situation of US-Russian relations in 2016 shows that the two sides have had frequent interactions around the Syrian issue and the fight against the "Islamic State". The two sides even reached a ceasefire agreement on the Syrian crisis in September 2016, which shows that the two sides have a willingness to cooperate, but due to serious differences, the ceasefire agreement quickly fell through. Subsequently, the two sides vetoed each other at the UN Security Council in October, so that the draft resolutions on Syria proposed by France, Spain and Russia were not passed, which shows the deep differences between the two sides. Judging from the future development trend, the United States and Russia will fight for a political solution to the Syrian issue, crack down on the "Islamic State" and actively strive for regional powers, but the two sides will also carry out limited cooperation around regional hot issues.
The regional pattern continues to be unbalanced,
However, it is difficult for any regional power to dominate.
From the perspective of the pattern of the Middle East, the root of the current chaos in the Middle East lies in the drastic changes in the Middle East, the strategic adjustment of the United States in the Middle East, the sudden emergence of the "Islamic State" and other factors, which have made it difficult to rebuild the regional pattern and never form a relatively stable balance of power structure. In 2016, the imbalance of the pattern in the Middle East was further aggravated, which was highlighted by the continuous deterioration of the strategic environment of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and the ambition of their great powers was continuously frustrated by internal and external difficulties.
First of all, the geopolitical, ethnic and sectarian confrontation between the two camps with Saudi Arabia and Iran as the core has become increasingly solid, but the confrontation between the two sides is more agent competition and has not moved towards a comprehensive direct confrontation. In the past few years, Saudi Arabia and Iran have launched a continuous agency competition around Bahrain, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. At the beginning of 2016, the crisis of breaking diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran led to the openness and factionalization of confrontation between the two sides. The contradiction between the two sides was not a simple sectarian contradiction, but a superposition of three major contradictions: the geopolitical contradiction for regional dominance, the Arab-Persian contradiction, and the Sunni-Shia contradiction. The confrontation between the two sides presents a "new normal" of constant discord but not going to war, and the countries in the Middle East are gradually divided into Saudi camp, Iranian camp and middle camp. After the sanctions were lifted, Iran’s rising momentum became more and more obvious, but it was still difficult to get out of the predicament of long-term sanctions in a short time. For Saudi Arabia, although its status as a big country still exists, it has fallen into serious strategic anxiety due to the rise of Iran, the impact of low oil prices, diplomatic difficulties and the retrogression of Saudi-American allies.
Secondly, Turkey attacked from all sides based on multiple goals such as seeking great power status, competing for regional dominance, and solving the domestic Kurdish issue, but its great power ambition was seriously frustrated in 2016. In recent years, Turkey has made bad relations with Israel on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, wrestled with Iran on the Syrian issue, fought with the Egyptian Sethi regime on the Muslim Brotherhood issue, clashed with Iraq and Syria on the Kurdish issue, played a game with Russia on the Syrian issue and the fight against the "Islamic State", and even competed with Saudi Arabia on the issue of Sunni dominance and Islamic world dominance, and played more negative roles. In 2016, Turkey was deeply impacted by the attempted coup, the Kurdish issue, frequent terrorist attacks and other issues. With the early scenery of the "Arab Spring" no longer, Turkey’s diplomacy has become cautious and restrained.
Finally, the traditional regional powers have different powers, and their power restructuring is far from in place. Although the status of Egypt and Israel cannot be underestimated, it is difficult for them to make great achievements. Judging from the comparative situation of the five regional fulcrum countries, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Israel, except for the above-mentioned Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Egypt’s status has greatly declined due to domestic turmoil and economic sluggishness, but the Sethi regime is seeking to revitalize Egypt’s status as a regional power. Israel’s security environment has been greatly improved, and its economic and scientific strength has made it an alternative stable country among the major powers in the Middle East. However, apart from adopting a more stubborn and conservative policy on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, Israel simply does not have the conditions and ability to lead regional affairs.
In short, in the current regional structure, the unfavorable position of major powers is further highlighted, and it is difficult for all parties to dominate regional affairs. Its positive impact is that the foreign strategies of major powers will tend to be cautious and rational, creating conditions for political solutions to regional hot issues; Its negative impact is that the continued imbalance of regional pattern will lead to the aggravation of regional disorder and seriously affect regional security and stability.
The transformation of Middle East countries is difficult.
But seeking development and stability has become the general trend.
Generally speaking, there are three types of countries in the Middle East: first, countries governed by chaos, represented by Egypt and Tunisia, whose overall situation is that although their situation has improved, their prospects are still not optimistic. To a large extent, they have only initially completed the task of maintaining national stability, but they are far from finding a suitable development path; Second, countries with persistent turmoil, such as Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq, are still in serious turmoil, and national reconstruction is seriously hindered; Third, most other Middle Eastern countries facing the pressure of transformation are solving long-standing problems through political and economic reforms and enhancing their national governance capacity.
The above three types of countries are all facing heavy transformation pressure. The important task of a country ruled by chaos lies in exploring the development path and development model. The key task of a country with serious turmoil lies in achieving stability at an early date, while the important task of a country facing transformation pressure lies in alleviating and releasing contradictions through reform and avoiding repeating the mistakes of the "Arab Spring" through development and transformation. For the first two types of countries, 2016 is still in a stalemate where transformation and turmoil are intertwined, and there is no new breakthrough; There are two noteworthy phenomena in countries facing the pressure of transformation, that is, Gulf Arab countries are actively promoting the transformation of national economic development, and the attempted coup in Turkey has exposed the profound pressure they are facing. However, from the perspective of the whole region, it is becoming the common aspiration of the countries and people in the region to be calm, avoid chaos and seek governance and development.
First of all, the GCC countries represented by Saudi Arabia, which are traditional energy powers, are actively exploring national transformation and trying to get rid of a single economic structure by implementing medium-and long-term economic plans. In 2016, Saudi Arabia put forward the "Vision 2030" plan, the United Arab Emirates formulated the "Strategic Plan 2021" and Qatar also formulated the "National Development Plan 2030", trying to get rid of dependence on oil and realize diversified economic development, but its prospects remain to be seen.
Secondly, the attempted coup reflects the deep-seated contradictions and crises in Turkey. In 2016, the slowdown in economic growth, frequent terrorist attacks, Erdogan’s forced presidential system, deepening diplomatic difficulties and the attempted coup all indicate that Turkey’s prosperity and stability in the past decade or so since the Justice and Development Party came to power are changing. At present, the contradictions between secularism and religion, state and society, authoritarianism and democracy, army and government, nation and religion, and nation and ethnicity constitute the main problems facing Turkey in the current transformation process. Turkey’s political, economic and social development has entered a period of profound adjustment and transformation, and may fall into the double predicament of economic recession and political turmoil.
Finally, after the long-term turmoil since the Middle East changed, development and stability have become the common aspiration of countries and people in the Middle East, especially the desire of Arab countries to avoid chaos and seek governance is even stronger. According to some opinion polls, due to the long-term political turmoil, extremism and terrorism, and the sustained economic downturn, both the Arab people and the intellectual elite have lost confidence in the so-called "Arab Spring" and are strongly eager for the country to achieve political stability and economic development. For example, a survey called "Arab Public Opinion Index" shows that the proportion of Arabs who have a positive attitude towards the "Arab Spring" has dropped from 61% in 2013 to 34% in 2015. According to the data of the Arab Youth Survey in 2016, 53% of Arab youth believe that stability is more important than democracy, while only 28% hold the opposite attitude. Therefore, people’s determination, avoiding chaos, seeking governance and development are increasingly becoming the common aspiration of countries and people in the Middle East, which may be the hope of turbulent Middle East.
(This article is from the January 2017 issue of Contemporary World)