Industrial production picked up, the growth rate of service industry production index was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 2.7 percentage points higher than that of last month … … On September 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the performance of the national economy in August, and most indicators were better than last month.
"On the whole, under the influence of multiple factors, such as shrinking external demand, the spread of domestic epidemics and extreme high temperature weather, it is not easy for China’s economy to withstand the pressure and continue to recover, operating in a reasonable range, and the main indicators have changed positively." At the press conference of the State Council Office held on September 16th, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
The growth rate of manufacturing investment accelerated, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment rebounded for four consecutive months.
In August, with the implementation of the economic stabilization package and the continuation of policies and measures, the policy effectiveness was accelerated and the national economy continued to resume its development trend. Most indicators were better than last month, among which investment data attracted much attention.
From January to August, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 5.8% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point faster than that in the previous July, mainly showing three characteristics:
The growth rate of manufacturing investment accelerated. Affected by complex external uncertainties, the problem of poor supply chain in industrial chain has become more prominent this year. In the face of this situation, the investment in manufacturing industry has increased. In the first eight months, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 10.0%, 0.1 percentage points faster than that in the previous July. Banks’ medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry maintained rapid growth, which also supported the rapid growth of manufacturing investment.
Investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly. In the first eight months, investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2%, of which investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 23.0% and 14.2% respectively. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, the investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 28.0% and 27.4% respectively; In the high-tech service industry, the investment in scientific and technological achievements transformation service industry and R&D design service industry increased by 20.0% and 16.9% respectively.
Infrastructure investment rebounded significantly. The issuance and use of local special bonds were accelerated, funds for policy and development financial instruments were effectively put into use, and various localities actively promoted the construction of infrastructure and new infrastructure such as transportation, energy, logistics, agriculture and rural areas, which promoted the accelerated growth of infrastructure investment. In the first eight months of this year, infrastructure investment increased by 8.3%, 0.9 percentage points faster than that from January to July, and the growth rate rebounded for four consecutive months.
Facing the complicated economic situation this year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have issued a series of policies and measures to stabilize the economic operation, but insufficient demand is still a prominent contradiction in the current economic operation. Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to increase the quota of policy-oriented development financial instruments by more than 300 billion yuan, and at the same time requested to make good use of the local balance limit of special bonds of more than 500 billion yuan according to law.
"These policies will help expand investment in fixed assets, especially infrastructure, and accelerate economic recovery." Fu Linghui said that according to preliminary statistics, the amount of policy-oriented development financial instruments that have been implemented in the project in the early stage is 300 billion yuan, and more than 900 investment projects are supported. The total planned investment of the project exceeds 3 trillion yuan, and the investment incitement effect is obvious.
With the acceleration of the issuance and use of new local special bonds, all localities have paid close attention to the implementation of special bond docking projects, which has effectively guaranteed the construction funds of investment projects. From January to August this year, among the funds invested in fixed assets, the funds in the national budget increased by 36.2% year-on-year, and the funds invested in infrastructure increased by 17.4% year-on-year, which was 1.7 percentage points faster than that in the previous July.
"With the gradual arrival of construction funds such as special debts, infrastructure projects have started one after another and the investment progress has been accelerating." Fu Linghui introduced that from January to August this year, the number of new infrastructure projects reached 52,000, an increase of 12,000 over the same period last year and an increase of 7,896 over the previous July; The planned total investment of infrastructure investment in newly started projects increased by 16.6% year-on-year, of which the planned total investment of newly started projects with a total investment of 100 million yuan or more increased by 18.8% year-on-year.
Consumer prices are basically stable.
Since the beginning of this year, global inflationary pressure has continued to increase. Since China did not adopt the policy of "flood irrigation" in the early stage, this year, it has continued to increase the market’s efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices. The domestic supply of goods and services is generally sufficient, and the consumer price is basically stable. In August, the consumer price (CPI) changed from 0.5% in the previous month to 0.1% in the previous month, up 2.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
From the ring comparison, CPI turned from rising to falling, mainly due to the decline in the price increase of pork and fresh vegetables. In August, pork prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and the month-on-month growth rate dropped by 25.2 percentage points from the previous month; Although the hot weather in the south has a certain impact on the supply of vegetables, a large number of vegetables in the north are listed, which makes the price of fresh vegetables rise by 2% from last month, and the increase rate drops by 8.3 percentage points from last month.
From a year-on-year perspective, the decline in CPI growth was mainly due to the decline in the price increase of energy and fresh vegetables. In August, the year-on-year increase of energy prices in CPI dropped by 2.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, which lowered the CPI increase by 0.16 percentage points; The price of fresh vegetables rose by 6%, down 6.9 percentage points from the previous month, which lowered the CPI increase by 0.12 percentage points.
"In the next stage, the impact of international commodity prices on domestic prices is still uncertain, and the domestic economic recovery will also boost prices. However, China’s market supply capacity is relatively strong, and the effect of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices will continue to appear, and there are good conditions for market price stability. " Fu Linghui said.
In August, the core CPI after deducting food and energy prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the same as last month. Does the core CPI remain at a low level, which means that domestic demand is insufficient?
Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic and changes in the external environment, the recovery of domestic demand has been relatively slow compared with the recovery of production, and the contradiction of insufficient demand at present is still outstanding. However, with the continuous implementation of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, the growth rate of consumption and investment rebounded in August. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 2.7 percentage points faster than last month. In the first eight months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate turned from negative to positive.
"With the gradual emergence of these policy effects, the situation that the core CPI is at a low level will gradually improve." Fu Linghui said.
Positive changes have taken place in the real estate market.
On July 28th, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting and proposed to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and make full use of the policy toolbox because of the city’s policy, support rigid and improved housing demand, compact the responsibility of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings and stabilize people’s livelihood.
Fu Linghui introduced that the policy effects of supporting rigid and improved housing demand, making good use of policy toolbox, flexibly using staged credit policy and special loan for Baojiaolou are gradually emerging.
The decline in market sales narrowed. From January to August this year, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 23% year-on-year, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the previous July. The sales of commercial housing decreased by 27.9%, narrowing the decline by 0.9 percentage points.
Investment in continued construction projects maintained growth. The local security building has been steadily promoted, and the effect has gradually emerged. From January to August, the investment growth rate of real estate development projects with a construction period of more than two years and about to enter the delivery stage was accelerated compared with the previous July.
The decline in the funds of enterprises in place has narrowed. From January to August, the funds paid by real estate development enterprises in this year decreased by 25% year-on-year, which was 0.4 percentage points narrower than that in July.
"Although there have been some positive changes in the real estate market, we must also see that the real estate market is still in a downward trend, and the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment is larger than last month." Fu Linghui said that in the first eight months of this year, investment in real estate development fell by 7.4% year-on-year. "We still have to continue to make efforts to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."