On January 1, 2020, the RRR cut came as scheduled, and the central bank decided to comprehensively reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from January 6. The central bank said that the RRR cut will release about 800 billion yuan of long-term funds and reduce the cost of bank funds by about 15 billion yuan.
What impact will the RRR cut have on various wealth management products? Liu Yinping, a researcher at Rong 360 Jianpu Technology Big Data Research Institute, believes that after the RRR cut, the market liquidity will be further relaxed and the price of funds will drop, resulting in a decline in the yield of fixed-income products; However, the RRR cut will be beneficial to some equity assets, and the income of fixed-income products will decline, and some funds will flow to equity assets, thus prompting asset prices to rise.
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Impact 1
Bank deposit interest rates will fall, and small banks may last for a long time.
Since 2019, the central bank has been guiding the interest rate in the loan market to fall, thus solving the problem of financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises. At present, the interest rates of various types of deposits in banks are at a high level. In order to avoid narrowing the deposit-loan spreads, banks will lower the interest rates of various deposit products, including time deposits, large deposit certificates and structured deposits.
Liu Yinping pointed out that different types of banks have different capital pressures, and the progress and extent of interest rate reduction will be different. Large and medium-sized banks may take the lead in lowering the deposit interest rate, while small banks have great difficulty in raising deposits, and the reduction of deposit interest rate may be one step behind.
Impact 2
The average yield of bank wealth management will fall below 4% again.
Since last year, the bank’s wealth management yield has continued to fall, and at the end of December, the yield has rebounded. According to the data monitored by Rong 360 Data Research Institute, the average yield of bank wealth management products rose to 4.11% last week.
Liu Yinping said that the RRR cut will lead to loose liquidity, and most of the underlying assets of bank wealth management are fixed-income assets, and the yield of such assets will drop, so will the yield of wealth management products, which is expected to fall below 4% again in the short term. However, the impact of RRR cuts on the income of wealth management products such as equity, commodities and financial derivatives is uncertain, which may push some equity assets higher.
Impact 3
The average yield of the money fund will fall to the range of 2.4%~2.5%.
The monetary fund yield behind all kinds of baby financing has always been sensitive to changes in market interest rates. Since the end of November last year, the yield of money funds has continued to rise. According to the data monitored by Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute, the average yield of goods-based babies last week was 2.69%, a 39-month high.
Even if the RRR is not lowered, the funds will gradually loosen after New Year’s Day, and the yield of the money fund will also fall. Lowering the benchmark will further loosen the liquidity and accelerate the decline of the yield of the money fund. It is expected that the average yield will fall to 2.4%~2.5% in the short term.
Impact 4
Theoretically speaking, RRR cuts are good for the stock market.
After the RRR cut, there will be more funds in the market, and some of them will flow to the stock market. Moreover, the increase in corporate credit will help improve the operating conditions of enterprises. Theoretically, the RRR cut is good news for the stock market.
However, judging from the performance of the stock market after previous RRR cuts, the stock index has been mixed. Liu Yinping pointed out that there are many factors affecting the stock market, including policies, economic environment, the development of all walks of life, market confidence and so on. Today is the first working day after the RRR cut, and all major stock indexes rose in the morning, so it seems that the market confidence is sufficient.
Text/reporter Cheng Wei
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A-shares welcome the new year and make a good start. The net inflow of northbound funds exceeds 10 billion.
(Reporter Liu Shenliang) A shares ushered in a good start in 2020 yesterday, and the three major stock indexes strengthened across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index once approached the 3100-point integer mark, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose nearly 2%. The total turnover of the two cities was 751.5 billion yuan, the industry sector closed up across the board, technology stocks led the gains strongly, and online celebrity live broadcast concept stocks continued to rise.
Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.15% to close at 3085.20 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.99% to close at 10,638.82 points; The growth enterprise market index rose 1.93% to close at 1832.74 points. The net inflow of northbound funds was 11.395 billion yuan yesterday, which has been a net inflow for 32 consecutive trading days.
Citic Securities pointed out that the main macro factors that suppressed A-share earnings in 2019 will be significantly alleviated in 2020, and the fundamentals will stabilize and rebound under the counter-cyclical policy, credit expansion and replenishment. Under the macro-economic decisive victory, capital market reform and the recovery of corporate profits, A shares are expected to usher in a "well-off cow" for two to three years.
Xun Yugen, chief strategist of Haitong Securities, stressed that technology and brokers will become the leading industries in this bull market. The superposition of scientific and technological progress and policy dividends will promote the performance of the science and technology sector to rebound. With the arrival of the era of equity financing, with the diversification of business in the future, the performance of securities firms is expected to revive.
