How does finance help the new development pattern

In the past few decades, China’s economic development has made great achievements, but now it is at a very critical turning point-from the first century’s goal of "building a well-off society in an all-round way" to the second century’s goal of "building a socialist modern power".
Compared with the early 40 years of reform and opening up, there will be three major changes in China’s economy in the next 30 years:
First, the cost advantage is no longer. China’s economic development once benefited from the low cost advantage for a long time, but now the cost has obviously increased. The economic growth mode will have to move from extensive and factor-input growth to innovation-driven growth.
Second, the demographic dividend has disappeared. In the past, China benefited from the increasing proportion of the labor force in the total population, but now it is an aging society, and the labor force population begins to decline, which will eventually affect the economic growth pattern.
Third, the trend of "anti-globalization" has emerged. The wave of globalization has obviously promoted China’s economic development in the past. China has been able to participate in the global division of labor, and its exports have increased substantially. A large number of foreign direct investments have enhanced the activity of the domestic economy. Nowadays, globalization is experiencing fluctuations, and the size of China’s economy has also increased significantly, so the growth momentum has to focus more on the domestic market. Therefore, the central government proposes to build a new development pattern with "double circulation"-with domestic big circulation as the main body and domestic and international double circulation promoting each other.
Finance should give more support to the real economy.
Under the new development pattern, how does finance act?
In the past four decades, finance has contributed greatly to economic growth, effectively supporting the average annual GDP growth rate of more than 9%, and the financial system is relatively stable. Although many scholars believe that the reform can be further deepened and the distortions in the system can be eliminated, on the whole, China’s financial system has effectively supported the rapid and relatively stable economic development.
In recent years, complaints against the financial industry have increased, especially "the strength of financial support for the real economy is weakening". In this regard, the most intuitive reflection is the decline in the "marginal capital output rate". The so-called marginal capital output rate refers to the amount of capital that needs to be increased when one unit of output is increased. Before the global financial crisis in 2007, China’s marginal capital output rate was about 3.5, but it has almost doubled at present, indicating that our financial efficiency has been discounted. If the financial efficiency continues to decline, even if the financial resources invested in economic construction continue to increase, the economic output will not be high or even decline, which will ultimately affect the sustainability of economic growth.
In the past, China’s financial system was relatively stable, but in recent years, risks in many financial fields began to emerge. We have two "magic weapons" to maintain financial stability. One is to resolve risks through sustained high growth; Second, the government should do everything to ensure the confidence of investors, consumers and other markets. However, the effectiveness of these two magic weapons is obviously declining, and the next step must be to make great efforts to build a financial safety network, which should not only have a market-oriented regulatory framework, but also involve the central bank and the financial sector.
There is a lot of work that finance can do to support the real economy more effectively, especially based on the new development pattern of "double cycle". Finance should strive to promote the domestic big cycle, and the practice can be linked from "supply" and "demand".
China’s economic growth in the past benefited from "two ends in the outside"-raw materials, technology and capital were introduced from abroad, products were produced and processed at home, and then bought back abroad. But this model will become increasingly difficult in the future. On the one hand, China’s economy is getting bigger and bigger. As some market participants have said, China enterprises "buy what is expensive;" What to sell, what is cheap. " On the other hand, large size also has obvious advantages. In the future, it is possible for the domestic market to continuously reduce the pressure of "two heads are outside", and both "supply" and "demand" are solved in the domestic market. Therefore, the key question is how finance can link "supply" and "demand" to support economic innovation and growth.
Supply side: Finance should strongly support economic innovation.
From the supply side, the core issue is to change the growth model and make innovation the main driving force for growth. Innovation is becoming more and more important to enhance the competitiveness of our economy in the domestic and international markets. Although the domestic market will be the main market in the future, we should remain open to the international market, and the industry must have international competitiveness in order to develop sustainably.
Our financial system used to effectively support extensive and factor-input economic growth. The economic activities under this growth model face relatively little uncertainty, and the products may have been abroad for decades or even hundreds of years. The uncertainties we face in many aspects such as technology, market, management and marketing channels are very low, and financial services are relatively easy to do, especially the pressure of risk management is not great.
If the financial future wants to strongly support economic innovation, the difficulty of managing risks will surge. Because innovation is bound to face many uncertainties, uncertainty will definitely increase the requirements for financial services.
If the economic growth model is to change, the financial development model must also change accordingly. To support economic innovation, finance should do two things: financial innovation and market-oriented reform.
Financial innovation includes three aspects:
First, develop the capital market and increase the proportion of direct financing. The prominent feature of China’s financial system is that banks are dominant. The biggest market participant in the financial system is commercial banks. Commercial banks have previously provided funds for large-scale manufacturing expansion, effectively supporting rapid economic growth. Generally speaking, the capital market has inherent advantages in supporting innovation, such as being better at identifying risks and patiently accompanying entrepreneurs to grow up. Therefore, the primary task of financial innovation is to develop the capital market and increase the proportion of direct financing. From the international experience, the leading financial systems in the United States, Britain and other countries are dominated by the capital market. We are already doing this kind of work, and we need to continue and increase our efforts in the future.
Second, innovate the business model of commercial banks. In the foreseeable future, commercial banks will remain our main financial channel, so it is necessary to innovate the business model of commercial banks in order to undertake the task of supporting economic innovation. There are also many successful examples of bank-led financial system innovation in the world. Germany and Japan are both bank-led financial systems, which have effectively helped enterprises master the international frontier economic technology. At present, the road of banking business model innovation in China has a long way to go.
Third, develop digital finance. With the help of digital technology, finance can better serve the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, private enterprises, especially "specialized and innovative" enterprises. For these enterprises, traditional financial institutions usually lack effective means of risk control, but now big data can help solve some problems. At present, some successful examples are some new Internet banks-Weizhong Bank, Online Merchant Bank, Xinwang Bank, etc. These institutions mainly look at data, not collateral, and can successfully control the average non-performing rate at a low level. If we popularize this method to traditional banks and help them do risk analysis on direct financing of listed companies, it means that we may explore a new way in this respect. In fact, China’s use of big data for credit risk management has been at the forefront of the international level.
In addition to financial innovation, financial support for economic innovation is inseparable from market-oriented reforms, one of which is market-oriented risk pricing.
China government has made great efforts to reduce the financing costs of SMEs, but the risks and costs must be matched to be sustainable. It is very important to support the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises and help them obtain loans, but at the same time, we should also pay attention to market-based risk pricing. Only in this way can commercial banks continue to carry out their business.
From the supply side, only by carrying out a series of reforms can finance better support economic innovation.
Demand side: Finance should strongly support consumption.
From the demand side, the so-called "troika"-investment, consumption and export, investment and export have been very strong, and consumption is relatively weak. After the global financial crisis, consumption has rebounded, but it is still dragging its feet, especially during the epidemic period, the economic recovery is weak, and key consumption can not get up, which seriously restricts the domestic macro-cycle.
Consumption is sluggish, and even if you invest a lot, it will easily become overcapacity. At the same time, the sluggish consumption is also contrary to the goal of the second century. The fundamental purpose of economic construction is to continuously meet the people’s needs for a better life, and only by increasing the consumption of ordinary people can we meet the standards.
At present, China’s consumption accounts for about 55% of GDP, which is about 20 percentage points lower than the world average and 25-30 percentage points lower than that of Britain and the United States.
Why is consumption sluggish or less than expected? There are three reasons:
First of all, the proportion of our residents’ income to GDP is not high, and the people are too dependent on labor income and lack asset income;
Secondly, the inequality of social income distribution is high, and the rich have a low propensity to consume, and most of them have bought what they should buy; The poor tend to spend more, but they have no money to spend. Therefore, the inequality of income distribution suppresses the total demand of social consumption;
Finally, the social security system needs to be further improved. Without social security, residents’ confidence in the future is insufficient, and everyone is afraid to spend more if they have money.
If these problems are solved, China’s future consumption can still be expected. At present, the total social retail sales in China is very impressive from a global perspective. If the consumption potential of 1.4 billion people can be further released and sustainable economic growth can be maintained in the future, China is expected to become the most desirable consumption market in the world.
At present, there is a lot of work to be done in consumption. We not only need the government to improve income distribution and improve the social security system, but also have huge room for finance. For example, the financial system can improve efficiency, thereby increasing the total social income, so that ordinary people can get asset income other than labor wages, so that more money can be used for consumption; For another example, we can vigorously develop inclusive finance, so that small and medium-sized enterprises, low-income families and agricultural workers in a weak position can obtain corresponding financial services and make the income distribution of the whole society more equal; Also, we can develop the financial industry, especially the insurance industry, and make the social security system more perfect.
To sum up, whether from the supply side or the demand side, finance has great potential to support the development of the real economy, innovative growth, consumption upgrading and a better life. As long as we have a good grasp of the direction of financial development, improve the efficiency of the financial system, and successfully control risks, finance will play a greater role in the new development pattern of "double cycle", thus helping us achieve the second century goal smoothly.
(The author is Professor, Vice President and Director of Digital Finance Research Center of National Development Institute of Peking University)
Reporting/feedback

How to release the potential of tourism consumption and promote the high-quality development of tourism? Do these five aspects well →

On September 27th, 2023, the General Office of the State Council issued Several Measures on Releasing the Potential of Tourism Consumption to Promote the High-quality Development of Tourism (Guo Ban Fa [2023] No.36, hereinafter referred to as "Several Measures"). In order to promote the in-depth implementation of the "Several Measures" in the cultural and tourism system, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a notice today requesting the cultural and tourism departments (bureaus) of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government to produce them in Xinjiang.

First, fully understand the great significance of implementing the "Several Measures"

Local cultural and tourism administrative departments should fully understand the great significance of implementing the "Several Measures" from a strategic and overall perspective, deeply analyze the new situation of tourism development, grasp the characteristics and laws of tourism development, accurately understand the scientific connotation of high-quality tourism development, clarify the goals and tasks of promoting high-quality tourism development in various places, enhance their sense of responsibility and urgency, and effectively unify their thoughts and actions with the deployment requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.

Two, do a good job in the study and publicity of "several measures"

The provincial administrative departments of culture and tourism should, in conjunction with relevant departments and in combination with the actual situation of local tourism development, study and sort out the key tasks that meet the development requirements of Several Measures, timely summarize the typical experiences and practices of releasing tourism consumption potential and promoting the high-quality development of tourism in the region, increase publicity and promotion, stimulate and guide more social forces to participate in the innovative practice of tourism development, and create a good social atmosphere for the high-quality development of tourism. At the same time, it is necessary to sort out the policies and measures that do not meet the requirements of high-quality development of tourism in accordance with the "Several Measures" and correct or adjust them in time.

Three, study and formulate the implementation plan of "several measures"

The provincial administrative departments of culture and tourism should, in combination with the actual situation, take the initiative to connect with the relevant tourism-related departments in light of the "Several Measures" and the "Task Division Plan of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Releasing Tourism Consumption Potential to Promote High-quality Development of Tourism" (copied to the provincial administrative departments of culture and tourism), and study and refine the work measures to release tourism consumption potential and develop tourism with high quality in combination with the actual situation in the region, so as to form the work of the provincial administrative departments of culture and tourism to implement the "Several Measures".

Fourth, strengthen coordination and linkage, and focus on solving difficult and blocking problems.

All localities should take the implementation of the "Several Measures" as an opportunity, focus on solving the difficult problems that have long restricted the high-quality development of tourism, and promote and improve the inter-departmental coordination mechanism of tourism work in the region. For policy initiatives involving multi-sectoral functions, such as actively developing eco-tourism products, optimizing tourism infrastructure, revitalizing idle tourism projects, adjusting and optimizing scenic spot management, strengthening inbound tourism, supporting the development of tourism enterprises, broadening financing channels, and strengthening land use security, we should strengthen communication and coordination with relevant departments, take the initiative, actively coordinate relevant departments to solve difficult and blocked problems in the process of policy implementation, and get through the "last mile" of policy implementation.

Fifth, strengthen organization and implementation, and accelerate the implementation of policies.

All localities should put the release of tourism consumption potential and the promotion of high-quality development of tourism in an important position at present, seize opportunities, do practical work, strengthen reform and innovation, guide tourism market players to adapt to changes in market demand, and accelerate the transformation of policy dividends into development effectiveness. Local cultural and tourism administrative departments should, under the leadership of local party committees and governments, jointly with relevant departments, pay close attention to the introduction of special supporting policies and measures to implement the "Several Measures" in the region, smooth the channels for policy implementation, and ensure that all the support measures of the "Several Measures" are fully effective. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism will strengthen the tracking and evaluation of the implementation of local policies, and timely summarize and popularize excellent experiences and practices. The implementation and effectiveness of relevant policies will be regarded as the key evaluation content of praise and encouragement for tourism work in various places.

(CCTV reporter Zheng Wei)

Source: CCTV news client

Why did Jordan and James have different results when they also complained to the referee?

Why did Jordan and James have different results when they also complained to the referee?

This question is very interesting. This includes two aspects: spiritual and external performance. First, mentally, Jordan respects basketball, so he is upright and arrogant in his heart when playing. Mr. Murong focuses on profit, and his sense of superiority comes from profit. Even if he gains unjustly, people like Zhai Tianlin are indulged by the referee, and he also intends to use it himself, even at the expense of bowing down to all directions.

Second, whether the double standard how external performance? Jamie’s logic is: you say James walks, then Jordan can’t walk once, you say James stands, then Jordan can’t stand once. How generous are you to yourself and strict with the law? Therefore, Jamie’s performance focuses on profit, which is the same as Zhan’s spiritual core. Isn’t this interesting?

Jordan didn’t stand up a few times in his life, and James did it all the time. Jordan spread his hand and scored six three-pointers at half-time in the finals, with his hands spread out, invincible and helpless. And my impression is that Jordan questioned the referee’s penalty, which is just a few words, without pestering or begging humbly, and finally responded with action. If there had been any weak behavior at that time, it would have become a big news. You know, in the last three companies, Jordan has become the public enemy of the league, and young elites want to ignore Jordan’s position.

Jordan is good at physical confrontation, and he doesn’t have any bad moves, especially diving and padding. Then the referee will respond naturally when he stands up, and most of his hands are self-satisfied, so I can’t help it. James has been diving, padding and walking for 20 years, which can be said to be the worst type in the top 10 in history. It is naturally another result that he is so weak! Be strict with others, be lenient with yourself, and naturally be laughed at.

Jordan didn’t play basketball at his peak, he didn’t take his talent anywhere at his peak, and he didn’t take the initiative to hug his thighs at his peak. The only thing he did was that he was bored at his peak and retired to play baseball, and then the NBA cried and begged him to come back. So don’t make excuses, why do different players have different understandings of the same thing, blame the referee? Strange fans? It depends on a player’s long-standing impression, so don’t push your problems out.

And it doesn’t matter how many points you score, it mainly depends on how much role you play on the team. Like last season’s regular season, you hold a lot of ball rights and don’t retreat. Such scores are meaningless. And LeBron’s defensive ability is not a problem at all. His size and strength determine that he will be an excellent defender if he wants to defend. The problem is that his defensive attitude is really not good, especially when he is old.

Sun Yingsha lost 4-0 to Chen Meng, which is abnormal? Don’t just watch the big score.

Some people watch the game and only watch the "big score".

In the WTT Macau Championship in 2023, Sun Yingsha lost 4-0 to Chen Meng in the women’s singles semi-final, and some people felt abnormal.

Last week’s WTT Xinxiang Championship was also a semi-final in women’s singles. Chen Meng lost 4-0 to Sun Yingsha. I wonder if they also felt abnormal?

In WTT Xinxiang Championship, Sun Yingsha scored 4-0 in Chen Meng, and the scores of the four sets were 11-5, 11-5, 11-7 and 11-6.

The score of four games failed to hit the key points, so it can be said that Chen Meng was completely defeated.

In the WTT Macau Championship, Sun Yingsha of Chen Meng scored 4-0, and the scores in four sets were 16-14, 11-6, 11-8 and 11-9.

Chen Meng and Sun Yingsha won the first game 10-9, and then Chen Meng tied the game and won five games in a row, only to win narrowly 16-14.

Sometimes, a small score per game is more telling.

Compare another women’s singles semi-final, although Manyu Wang won Wang Yidi 4-2, but this game is less suspense than Chen Meng’s 4-0 win over Sun Yingsha.

Manyu Wang 4-2 Wang Yidi, the score of six games: 7-11, 11-9, 11-9, 11-6, 5-11, 11-4.

Manyu Wang is tall and arm-length, and her movements will not be restored very quickly, which determines that her forehand and backhand cohesion will not be very smooth in the near stage. What Manyu Wang is afraid of is the players with fast convergence speed and not weak strength. In the face of fast players, she often has to quit the stage and exchange distance for reaction time.

Only with speed and strength, it is possible to penetrate Manyu Wang’s defense.

However, Wang Yidi is not a speed player, and her playing style also depends on the quality of her own veneer, which is similar to that of Manyu Wang.

However, compared with Wang Yidi, Manyu Wang has stronger rotation in returning the ball and higher veneer quality. From a fundamental point of view, Manyu Wang’s strength is higher than Wang Yidi’s.

Therefore, regardless of Manyu Wang’s four-to-several win, as long as it is a best-of-seven game, the chance of surprise is very small. Under normal circumstances, it is only a matter of time before Manyu Wang defeats Wang Yidi.

However, in the semi-final between Chen Meng and Sun Yingsha, after 9-9 in the fourth game, if it wasn’t Chen Meng’s serve wheel and Chen Meng’s serve, but Sun Yingsha reversed the game, the result of the following game would be hard to say.

Before the game, when analyzing the match between Chen Meng and Sun Yingsha, I said: Chen Meng was in a particularly good state this time, and Sun Yingsha experienced high-intensity events in a row, and her state declined, which may add a little suspense to this semi-final.

For players with equal strength, the recent competitive state of the players is very important, and the players’ improvisation has a great influence on the results of the game.

Fan Zhendong’s 3-2 reversal of Lin Shidong in the men’s singles quarter-final of WTT Xinxiang Championship last week is a typical example. Lin Shidong got the match point 10-8 in the fourth game, but Fan Zhendong tied the score. Finally, Fan Zhendong reversed 13-11 to win the fourth game and was tied with a big score. Fan Zhendong won the deciding game 11-8. Moreover, Fan Zhendong finally won the men’s singles championship in Xinxiang Championship.

A game, one or two key points, may lead to a world of difference.

In table tennis, besides paying attention to who wins and who loses, it is better to look at the score of each game.

I’m interested in going to see the players’ respective service wheels, return balls and so on. If you are still interested, then learn about various services, techniques and tactics, table tennis equipment and so on.

So, don’t stop at the level of "0-4 lost". Players are improving, should old fans keep pace with the times?

As for some "extreme fans", they think that the players they like can only win but not lose. Losing is abnormal and fishy. Don’t apply the "rice circle" to competitive sports. Isn’t it good to chase the stars in the entertainment circle?

Technical password of generated image AI

In the past few years, artificial intelligence (AI) has made great progress, and AI’s new products include AI image generator. This is a tool that can convert input statements into images. There are many AI tools for text-to-image conversion, but the most prominent ones are DALL-E 2, Stable Diffusion and Midjourney.

DALL-E 2 is developed by OpenAI and the project of chatgpt is complementary. It generates images through a paragraph of text description. Its GPT-3 converter model trained with more than 10 billion parameters can interpret natural language input and generate corresponding images.

DALL-E 2 mainly consists of two parts-converting user input into a representation of an image (called Prior), and then converting this representation into an actual photo (called Decoder).

The text and images used in it are embedded in another network called CLIP (Contrast Language-Image Pre-training), which is also developed by OpenAI. CLIP is a neural network that returns the best title for the input image. What it does is the opposite of what DALL-E 2 does-it converts images into text, while DALL-E 2 converts text into images. The purpose of introducing CLIP is to learn the connection between visual and text representation of objects.

DALL-E 2′ s job is to train two models. The first one is Prior, which accepts text labels and creates CLIP image embedding. The second is Decoder, which accepts CLIP image embedding and generates images. After the model training is completed, the reasoning process is as follows:

  • The input text is converted into CLIP text embedding using neural network.

  • Use Principal Component Analysis to reduce the dimension of text embedding.

  • Create an image embedding using text embedding.

  • After entering the Decoder step, the diffusion model is used to embed the image into an image.

  • The image is enlarged from 64×64 to 256×256, and finally enlarged to 1024×1024 by using convolutional neural network.

Stable Diffusion is a text-to-image model, which uses CLIP ViT-L/14 text encoder and can adjust the model through text prompts. It separates the imaging process into a "diffusion" process at runtime-starting from the noisy situation, gradually improving the image until there is no noise at all, and gradually approaching the provided text description.

Stable Diffusion is based on Latent Diffusion Model(LDM), which is a top-notch text-to-image synthesis technology. Before understanding the working principle of LDM, let’s look at what is diffusion model and why we need LDM.

Diffusion Models, DM) is a generation model based on Transformer, which samples a piece of data (such as an image) and gradually increases the noise over time until the data cannot be recognized. This model tries to return the image to its original form, and in the process, it learns how to generate pictures or other data.

The problem of DM is that powerful DM often consumes a lot of GPU resources, and the cost of reasoning is quite high due to Sequential Evaluations. In order to train DM on limited computing resources without affecting its quality and flexibility, Stable Diffusion applies DM to powerful Pre-trained Autoencoders.

On this premise, the diffusion model is trained, which makes it possible to achieve an optimal balance between reducing complexity and preserving data details, and significantly improves the visual reality. The cross attention layer is introduced into the model structure, which makes the diffusion model a powerful and flexible generator and realizes the high-resolution image generation based on convolution.

Midjourney is also a tool driven by artificial intelligence, which can generate images according to the user’s prompts. MidJourney is good at adapting to the actual artistic style and creating images with any combination of effects that users want. It is good at environmental effects, especially fantasy and science fiction scenes, which look like the artistic effects of games.

DALL-E 2 uses millions of image data for training, and its output results are more mature, which is very suitable for enterprises to use. When there are more than two characters, the image generated by DALL-E 2 is much better than that generated by Midjourney or Stable Diffusion.

Midjourney is a tool famous for its artistic style. Midjourney uses its Discord robot to send and receive requests for AI servers, and almost everything happens on Discord. The resulting image rarely looks like a photo, it seems to be more like a painting.

Stable Diffusion is an open source model that everyone can use. It has a good understanding of contemporary art images and can produce works of art full of details. However, it needs to explain the complex prompt. Stable Diffusion is more suitable for generating complex and creative illustrations. However, there are some shortcomings in creating general images.